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The Most Comprehensive Shotgun Performance Book Ever!

120K views 88 replies 26 participants last post by  Mark Pfeifer 
#1 ·
Sporting Shotgun Performance
Measurement, Analysis, Optimization
by DR. A.C. Jones

See my review at
http://www.shotgunworld.com/shotguninsight.html

From the author:
Seven years in the making, 2500 test patterns, clay pigeon impact tests, computational fluid dynamics analysis: There is no other book on shotgun performance quite like this!
 
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#7 ·
Well, I'm sure you have all heard the story about the chap who has a squeaky floor board. He tries everything to cure it, but fails. He calls in a number of experts who also fail. Finally, he calls in an old-timer. The old boy walks across the floor and takes out his hammer, and then hits one nail. The squeak is gone. He presents a bill for $200. The homeowner is aghast and remonstrates; it only took seconds, how can the bill be hundreds? The old boy replies you're not paying for the swinging of the hammer, but the knowing where to hit, which in turn came from years of experience.

So, is £35 expensive for a paper back? It's certainly expensive for the paper, but then you're not buying paper, you are buying knowledge. If you wanted to get this knowledge yourself, what would it cost?

Some 7-8 years ago, someone got in touch with me about the pattern analysis software. He had a team of programmers working on a similar task but they could not get it to work. He had spent ~$100K on it to date. So, just for argument's sake, take the cost of the software as $100K if you paid someone to write it - that's 2004 figures, so call it $150K in today's money. On top of the scanning software, the book uses more code - about the same number of lines as the scanning software but more straightforward, so assume it would cost another $50K for a professional programmer. ($200K)

Next, there are the commercial software licences. The one for Matlab is ~$2500 - $10,000 per year. I don't know what CCM+ costs but I'd guess upwards of a few thousand dollars a year. Plus, you need to know how to use them or outsource the work. ($15,000)

It's one thing outsourcing programming, but you need to tell the programmer what to do. If you only have the idea you'll need a mathematician of some sort to explain to the programmer what is needed in terms they can implement. What would a consultant mathematician cost? If you could find one, probably a few tens of thousands, say $50K. ($50K)

So far, you are down about $300,000. Time to start some data gathering! If you can do 30 patterns a day, the 3000 odd patterns will take 100 days. Bill this at $10/hour, $80/day, or $8000 for the lot. If you don't value your sanity, you can scan about 30 patterns a day, so that's another $8000. ($16,000)

The cost of computers, cameras, paper, shells, gun trades, chokes, fuel, range hire came to about $20,000.

Now you are ready to sit down and start reducing the data to conclusions, writing it all up, making some kind of story out of it. Even if you average one page per day, that's ~300 days of labour. Since we are not talking kid's story book here, you have to bill at a professional rate, say $100K per year, or ~$125K for the 300 days. ($125K)

That's a grand total of ~$425,000. I know a lot of people will cry foul here and say you'd "do it yourself" and not pay going rates. But the thing is, unless you are a programmer, mathematician, engineer, and practical physicist, and have access to the tools, the task won't get done. $55 for access to $400,000 of unique effort that won't be repeated; it's a bargain really. Bear in mind also, that $425,000 does not include the value of having the ideas, which really are priceless.

Of course, you might be the person who looks at a fine gun and says, "It's a lot of money for some wood and metal".
 
#8 ·
Dr. Jones,
I do not dispute the value you have placed upon your research, if that is what you think you are worth.
What I was asking is ' Is your book worth £35 for a paperback?' When you consider the work carried out by Ed Lowry, Journee, Oberfell & Thompson, and the work carried out by Dr. Roger Giblin & David Compton, what new ground does your book break? Just give us a little nugget or two about what you discovered in your research.
As for your theory about one pellet breaks, I have to ask what initiated this train of thought? When you consider that in clay shooting we are talking of using loads containing multi-pellets, where does the one pellet break theory sit and of what practical use is it?
Has your book been made available for review in Gt.Britain, who reviewed it ?
My views expressed may seem to be negative or even anti, but I can assure you I am only interested in answers and progress. Show me the facts and I will buy into them if it is not flawed science.
 
#9 ·
Salopian
I guess you need to see this to decide if it's for you! On the link I left previously there's an option to view some of the pages from the book including the contents list.
Alternatively I'm aiming to go to the practice sporting shoot at WMSG (Hodnet) tomorrow (Tuesday) starting at 4pm. If you were able to get there I could bring my copy for you to look at .........
 
#11 ·
I do not dispute the value you have placed upon your research, if that is what you think you are worth.
You missed the point. I wasn't valuing my time. I was pointing out what it would cost if you set about the work and had to hire in the skills and tools, which is the alternative to buying the book at whatever price I decide.

Ed Lowry didn't write a book. If you understood what he wrote in his various articles you wouldn't be disputing the single pellet story. Ed wrote something like, "Each pellet strike on a clay pigeon can be treated as an independent event". If you want to understand what Ed meant, then my book describes the mechanisms at play in a manner you will have more chance (but no guarantee of course) of understanding.

Oberfell & Thompson are now completely discredited. Brindle explained why about 20 years ago but it was heavy on the maths. I explain why in words and pictures that will give you more chance of understanding why.

Similarly, unless you are hot on maths (and French) you won't make much of Journee.

I doubt many people could understand the papers by Giblin et al (me included for the most part) so what use are they?

What I don't understand is, why people such as yourself who consider themselves experts are delaying. If you want to be considered an expert you need to bite the bullet and keep abreast of things. If the book is rubbish you could be at the vanguard saying so. Let's face it, you bought O&T and that's complete rot.

I also struggle to see why reviews in the UK should be valued more highly than ones from the US. A shotgun doesn't know which country it is in.

Andrew.
 
#12 ·
Dr. Jones,
I have never said or implied that I am an expert in ballistics. What I have asked is what use is your book.
I have read many works by many authors and I believe that I do understand for the most part the research carried out by Giblin / Compton, in fact I distinctly remember guiding you towards their writings some years ago.
What I have not seen is anything useful by yourself, and you have failed to give guidance.
You struggle to see why a review in the UK is of any use. Why not? Surely there is a market in the UK.
Why is your book so elusive to find in the UK and yet so well promoted in the United States?
Why is your book not readily available to buy at Braintree shooting ground or any of the others that helped you with your research, surely they would see your book as advertising material.
Where am I disputing the single pellet theory? What I said was we use multi-pellet loads what use is the single pellet theory? Explain please.
The BASC have a research department devoted to shotgun and cartridge research, have you supplied them with a copy of your book?
 
#13 ·
salopian, I do recall the Giblin lead. It was a dead link as I recall. Anyway, I had already paid for the download and I don't recall it being useful. I only write this to make clear I am aware of Giblin et al, it's not some hitherto unknown mine of information to me.

The book has been available equally in the US and UK from day one. There's no conspiracy. Bruce Buck gave me some advice years ago and he was one of the few useful leads early on when I was researching the software so he was an obvious choice to review the book. I can't think of anybody in the UK (or US for that matter) who writes in the popular magazines and has the same level of understanding. That written, even he was generous enough to say he had learnt from it.

The internet avenues are US dominated because the websites are US and the large shooting populace of the US. I use TS.com mainly because of the contributions of Neil Winston, and I use SGW because it is generally civilised - and has been since the early days. Also, there is a profound aggregate cultural difference between Americans and Brits when it comes to new things. They are more likely to give things a go even if only out of curiosity. You might like to be disparaging and say this is because they have more money but I see it more as the "can do" attitude that is a trait throughout business at large.

The book is "print on demand" (PoD). There's no stock. You may not realise this, but most of the traditional book sellers demand ~60-70% of the cover price for their margins. That doesn't leave much after print costs for the poor sap who actually wrote the book. PoD is the only way low volume books have a chance.

As for usefulness and guidance, there have been several threads here on SGW, for example, on this same page:

http://www.shotgunworld.com/bbs/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=265777&p=2264360#p2264360 (and follow the subsequent links).

To my knowledge, nobody previously has ever been able to define the benefits of higher muzzle velocites. In fact, the common advice is lower velocity for better patterns and downrange energies are so similar why bother with the higher recoil. What I showed is higher velocity doesn't desgrade patterns and higher energy increases the chance of a break. You might be able to use this to you advantage.

The main benefit of the book I think, is that it makes everything clearer - so long as you can understand it of course. I can dismiss most of what I read or hear as both unfounded and nonsense and my shooting life is now much simpler without any temptation from the latest marketing twist. Shooting too becomes much simpler. I have tight chokes and open chokes. The choice is only "tight" or "open". Because I know the effect of all the choke increments, I know I don't have to worry beyond being "broadly right" to give broadly the best chance of hitting the target. Most targets fall readilly into "tight" or "open". People who use 1/4 and 1/2 . . . there's almost no difference so why have two things that are different but the near enough the same. How many trap guns have had an 1/8th of a choke taken out? If the owners understood how guns work they would never have done this. You see a lot of pet chokes constrictions, for example 36-thou is common in the US. That's implied precision that simply isn't there. "Tight", where tight means about 40-thou would do.

Really, you either want to know or you don't. And even if you do want to know, the book is still heavy going for many people. An engineering background and an open mind make the reading easy. One of them alone will get you through most of it with some effort. Lack both of those and you won't like it.

Andrew.
 
#16 ·
Doug, The tests included a Miroku MK38, which has Browning's Backbored barrels. The patterns (in a statistical sense) were no different to those from guns slightly less than nominal. In statistics parlance, the tests provided no data to support the case that overbored barrels give better patterns.

Someone in the US sent me three patterns from his Baker BigBore (.750" as I recall); the results were unbelievable in that they were near identical to those from my slightly less than nominal gun. The measured aspects of his and my patterns were so close you'd be inclined to call foul.

I also know that someone else is doing (or has done) lots of tests on different over sized bores and the results will be published soon . . . . or maybe in a couple of years.

Andrew.
 
#18 ·
I may have seen that - there was a follow-up if I recall and included felt recoil? To be honest, most of the magazine tests are so flawed I tend not to pay attention. Neil Winston did a lot of chrono work showing how variable each make and type of shell is over time and batches:

http://www.claytargettesting.com/

. .. . . it makes clear just how effort is needed to make sense of shotshell velocities.

Over the years several people (including Neil) have shared their backbore velocity data, and the most one can say is that sometimes the velocity effect goes up, sometimes down. To be useful, articles like the one you cite need to show how the guns perform across a range of shells and a range of operating conditions, for example temperature. I raise this latter point because I had a backbored gun that didn't light-off some shells and in the US where they have really cold weather, backboring again can become a liability.

Andrew.
 
#21 ·
Nothing is better than Full choke. At least you KNOW you have enough. :)
You can use any combination of choke and shot size that you like, but if you cannot put the pattern in the right place you are wasting your time.
If you don't listen to the advice your coach gives you and apply it you are also wasting his time and your money. Any book is only as good as the applied science after you have read it.
 
#22 ·
Dr. Jones, I just bought your book, in large measure b/c I like the way you argue. I'm a barrister in the colonies who enjoys a good argument so much I sometimes like to argue in my spare time, for free:

On a more serious note, while no information about the hardware (i.e., the guns, shells, chokes, etc.) matters nearly as much as the software (the muscle memory and "on-board computer" between the ears) when it comes to hitting clays, I'm convinced I can't have too much information on the subject, as long as it's accurate information, and when we look at how much a lot of us spend on our guns, club memberships, or even a single day of clays, when you throw in gas, er, oops--petrol ;), just over $50 shipped U.S. for a book doesn't seem like a huge investment.
 
#23 ·
Dobervol, I'm pretty close now to leaving Airstrip 1 and heading for Oceania, so I'll have to learn to speak kinda funny too!

I have said several times before, if the book saves you one choke, then it's paid for itself. Anybody with more than five chokes to cover the entire range of constrictions has probably over-spent.

I wish somebody would take up the frangibility of clays aspect. There's little room for doubt that some makes of clays are much tougher to break than others. A bit of independent quality control would keep everybody honest and stop the race to the bottom on price. The choice of clay probably has a greater impact than the choice of gun!

BTW, re the video, Monty Python was a bit before my time. The BBC did some great stuff back then - it's dire now. Do a youtube search for The Old Grey Whistle Test - bands from 1970s performing live. Some of the performances are considered classics.

Andrew.
 
#24 ·
I recently patterned 7 stock chokes that came with my Guerini. I was charged near 30 USD equivalent for the pattern card, and I got badly chewed by vicious horse-flies into the bargain, so yes, I'll buy the book for saving me this hassle

I have received some rather patronising responses, in the past, from more experienced shots, and even instructors when I first started shotgunning and patterned this-and-that shell obsessively. I was made to feel pretty bad. I beat them all now at the trap lines. None ridicule any longer.

Agree clay characteristics is way overlooked.

I film trapped clays at 1200 frames-per-second for my own amusement. One thing I observed, the released clays do not always appear to spin. Perhaps I could film some black clays with a hi-vis orange dot to prove this more solidly, but this would need more cooperation from a club than I may be given.
 
#25 ·
Something is worth in the marketplace what a willing buyer is willing to pay for it and what a willing seller is willing to sell it for. Period. So, if you're willing to pay L35,it's worth it; if you ain't; it ain't. If you are; it is. Everything else is just tire kicking and dickering.
 
#26 ·
Norbert, See these videos of clays in flight and being struck by pellets:

http://www.mn-trap.org/tech_corner/n_wi ... ation.html

And for a load of other videos go to http://www.mn-trap.org/ -> Tech corner -> Neil Winston.

I guess he and I use the same camera as you (since you mention 1200fps).

MAJENKINS, What you write only applies if the buyer is knowledgeable and the seller honest. I might be selling you a tuned car that you believe (from whatever source) does 140mph (20mph more than standard). We agree a price, you get home and find it only does 120mph. Now you're not so happy about the price. Of course you may never test the 140mph claim and be happy in the belief that it will do 140mph - but other people who know better will know you have been done and tend not to take seriously anything you say about the topic.

Andrew.
 
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