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 Post subject: Re: Please Be Careful
PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:48 pm 
Crown Grade

Joined: Sun Mar 10, 2013 11:02 am
Posts: 2477
Location: KS
A retrospective study in the UK demonstrated race/ethnic disparities in COVID19 case outcomes that are consistent with experience in the US. The study did not identify previously unknown risk factors. No surprises.




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 Post subject: Re: Please Be Careful
PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2020 4:29 pm 
Field Grade

Joined: Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:50 am
Posts: 81
Location: Western Pennsylvania
lt0026 wrote:
NY Times as a source. Yup that takes the politics out of it. :roll:


Another, since you didn't like the first....

40,000 deaths divided by 50,000,000 population, equals the chance of dying from Covid....The number should look familiar....


Last edited by Battue0626 on Sat Jul 11, 2020 8:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Please Be Careful
PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2020 4:53 pm 
Crown Grade

Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2008 11:12 am
Posts: 5708
Depends on who does the data collection and the criteria. I have friends who lost parents to cancer and the primary cause of death was listed as Covid. People dying in car crashes listed as Covid deaths. What are the numbers for for other causes of death during the past 7 months? Tell me how many people survived? Never hear that number do we?


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 Post subject: Re: Please Be Careful
PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2020 6:19 pm 
Crown Grade

Joined: Sun Jan 17, 2016 3:34 pm
Posts: 5986
‘Friends’ huh?...... what are they doing to correct the matter. Falsification of COD certificate is kind of a no no. You’re saying your ‘friends’ are fighting to expose this behavior?...letting it slide?.....none of the above?

If it smells like old fish....


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 Post subject: Re: Please Be Careful
PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2020 6:24 pm 
Tournament Grade

Joined: Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:20 pm
Posts: 278
C’mon now, guys. You are accepting these stories as fact based on no evidence at all. I would like to see some corroboration.

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 Post subject: Re: Please Be Careful
PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2020 7:25 pm 
Field Grade

Joined: Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:50 am
Posts: 81
Location: Western Pennsylvania
Urban myths abound and Covid isn't being written on death certificates for other causes...

Not myths...Covid is more contagious than the flu....the vast majority who are relatively healthy will survive it....those who are older and have concurrent underlying conditions will be more susceptible to dying or having a severe case, which is pretty much true with any condition or disease...Covid will be here next year and the year after.... it will probably mutate and like the flu a vaccine will help, but it will probably have to be adapted frequently....We can't shut the country down year after year....We can't wear masks for the rest of our lives....We best learn to live with it because it is never going away completely...


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 Post subject: Re: Please Be Careful
PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2020 7:28 pm 
Crown Grade

Joined: Sun Jan 17, 2016 3:34 pm
Posts: 5986
Battue0626 wrote:
Urban myths abound and Covid isn't being written on death certificates for other causes...

Not myths...Covid is more contagious than the flu....the vast majority who are relatively healthy will survive it....those who are older and have concurrent underlying conditions will be more susceptible to dying or having a severe case, which is pretty much true with any condition or disease...Covid will be here next year and the year after.... it will probably mutate and like the flu a vaccine will help, but it will probably have to be adapted frequently....We can't shut the country down year after year....We can't wear masks for the rest of our lives....We best learn to live with it because it is never going away completely...


Very well said.


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 Post subject: Re: Please Be Careful
PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:09 pm 
Field Grade

Joined: Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:50 am
Posts: 81
Location: Western Pennsylvania
Instant Covid cure....

Elect Biden and the news media within a week, maybe less, will proclaim the crisis is over and we can all go back to normal. Book it Dano.....


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 Post subject: Re: Please Be Careful
PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:24 pm 
*Proud to be a*
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Joined: Fri Feb 15, 2008 5:22 pm
Posts: 11072
Location: Athens,TX.
Battue0626 wrote:
Instant Covid cure....

Elect Biden and the news media within a week, maybe less, will proclaim the crisis is over and we can all go back to normal. Book it Dano.....


+10 {hs#

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 Post subject: Re: Please Be Careful
PostPosted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 7:12 am 
Limited Edition

Joined: Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:22 pm
Posts: 465
Location: Alabama
I know two people that passed away and were tested for Covid 19 before they died.
Both tests came back negative, and the cause of death for both was listed as Covid 19.
The families are disputing this right now.
It is happening.
The cases are going up, the death RATE is going down.

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 Post subject: Re: Please Be Careful
PostPosted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 7:29 am 
Crown Grade

Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2008 11:12 am
Posts: 5708
Some states are using the phrase Covid related. Or they use Covid as a secondary cause and then count it as a Covid death. And they keep no stats or report on recovered patients.


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 Post subject: Re: Please Be Careful
PostPosted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 7:40 am 
Crown Grade

Joined: Sun Mar 10, 2013 11:02 am
Posts: 2477
Location: KS
Some observations in defense of the data:

1. Misclassification of deaths happens, sometimes reporters and recorders get it wrong - for a variety of reasons. It isn't necessarily malice or politics, just error.
2. Errors are more common in outbreak situations; folks are rushed, tired, trying to catch up, whatever.
3. Errors are more common in emergent situations; case definitions are evolving and coding standards not necessarily well defined.
4. When this is all over (and eventually it will be), epidemiologists and biostatisticians will conduct retrospective studies of the first wave of the COVID19 pandemic. They will "clean up" the data for analysis. Part of the data cleaning process will be to develop scientifically defensible definitions for COVID19 cases and COVID19-related deaths.
5. Analyses and published results will use those definitions - available for everyone to examine.
6. If you want really accurate estimates of "first wave" COVID19 mortality in selected populations, you are probably going to have to wait a couple of years for them. Getting it right takes time and peer review.


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 Post subject: Re: Please Be Careful
PostPosted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 7:53 am 
Crown Grade

Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2008 11:12 am
Posts: 5708
Why no numbers on those treated in hospitals and discharged?


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 Post subject: Re: Please Be Careful
PostPosted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 7:55 am 
Crown Grade

Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2017 9:08 am
Posts: 2422
Location: Central NH
There are numbers for recoveries on the Johns Hopkins site, but not whether they were admitted to a hospital.


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 Post subject: Re: Please Be Careful
PostPosted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:10 am 
Crown Grade

Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2008 11:12 am
Posts: 5708
All these numbers are considered provisional. I wouldn't take them as accurate for quite some time. As stated above you will see them revised up or down. The issue with the numbers is they are being used as a political football. That tends to make what you hear and see printed highly suspect.


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 Post subject: Re: Please Be Careful
PostPosted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:13 am 
Crown Grade

Joined: Sun Mar 10, 2013 11:02 am
Posts: 2477
Location: KS
This early on, one would probably have to obtain those data by facility.

At this point it is unlikely that anyone has gotten around to standardizing definitions and aggregating data from more than a few hospitals treating COVID patients. We're early in this thing, and the alligator/swamp principal is still very much in play.


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 Post subject: Re: Please Be Careful
PostPosted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:18 am 
Crown Grade

Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2016 11:45 am
Posts: 2072
mwr01 wrote:
Some observations in defense of the data:

1. Misclassification of deaths happens, sometimes reporters and recorders get it wrong - for a variety of reasons. It isn't necessarily malice or politics, just error.
2. Errors are more common in outbreak situations; folks are rushed, tired, trying to catch up, whatever.
3. Errors are more common in emergent situations; case definitions are evolving and coding standards not necessarily well defined.
4. When this is all over (and eventually it will be), epidemiologists and biostatisticians will conduct retrospective studies of the first wave of the COVID19 pandemic. They will "clean up" the data for analysis. Part of the data cleaning process will be to develop scientifically defensible definitions for COVID19 cases and COVID19-related deaths.
5. Analyses and published results will use those definitions - available for everyone to examine.
6. If you want really accurate estimates of "first wave" COVID19 mortality in selected populations, you are probably going to have to wait a couple of years for them. Getting it right takes time and peer review.



Very informative, thank you.

There is a lot of hysteria on all sides it seems to me.


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 Post subject: Re: Please Be Careful
PostPosted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:47 am 
Tournament Grade

Joined: Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:20 pm
Posts: 278
mwr01 wrote:
Some observations in defense of the data:

1. Misclassification of deaths happens, sometimes reporters and recorders get it wrong - for a variety of reasons. It isn't necessarily malice or politics, just error.
2. Errors are more common in outbreak situations; folks are rushed, tired, trying to catch up, whatever.
3. Errors are more common in emergent situations; case definitions are evolving and coding standards not necessarily well defined.
4. When this is all over (and eventually it will be), epidemiologists and biostatisticians will conduct retrospective studies of the first wave of the COVID19 pandemic. They will "clean up" the data for analysis. Part of the data cleaning process will be to develop scientifically defensible definitions for COVID19 cases and COVID19-related deaths.
5. Analyses and published results will use those definitions - available for everyone to examine.
6. If you want really accurate estimates of "first wave" COVID19 mortality in selected populations, you are probably going to have to wait a couple of years for them. Getting it right takes time and peer review.

Really nice explanation.

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 Post subject: Re: Please Be Careful
PostPosted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:56 am 
Limited Edition

Joined: Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:22 pm
Posts: 465
Location: Alabama
Last week the local news front story was "Alabama hospitals at near capacity" Hospitals was plural.
When you listened to the story it was ONE hospital in the entire state at near capacity.
Last week the hospital my Daughter works at had 3 cases.
The situation with the virus is real, but being exaggerated for political motives.
I know people are dying, that's not what I meant by exaggerated, there are people that want the country shut down.
A political rally caused cases to spike, but protests and riots didn't ? Come on.

I have 3 family members that are Covid 19 positive right now.
Luckily they are young and in good health, and only have very mild symptoms.

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 Post subject: Re: Please Be Careful
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:19 pm 
Crown Grade

Joined: Tue Nov 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Posts: 2449
salopian wrote:
I have now not shot for 18 weeks and maintained social distancing , I really miss my shooting ,but glad I am still here , unlike many friends .


Thank God the calendar hasn't gone metric. When do you think you'll start shooting again?



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