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 Post subject: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:59 am 
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Rumors.......maybe we should pay attention instead of guessing?

https://www.trapshooters.com/threads/me ... ge.897327/



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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2020 12:23 pm 
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Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:40 pm
Posts: 143
Here is a link to the actual video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIgvoJKovIg

This was a well produced video and I am glad that the company took a proactive measure to get their message out.


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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2020 3:33 pm 
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Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2020 11:44 am
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Location: Los Angeles, CA
Excellent message.

2020 was the year to invest in toilet paper and bullets. Who would have predicted that?

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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2020 3:46 pm 
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So goes the conspiracy theories!

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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2020 4:50 pm 
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If their factories were working 5 days a week, and work 3 shifts, if they worked OT every week, you are only adding 104 days of production a year, and that would be working every single day. That is impossible to do. I sure as hell would not work 7 days a week for very long!! Machinery breaks down, need maintenance. As the old saying goes................."This to shall pass"



cdb

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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2020 5:36 pm 
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CDB..

You wouldn't last long working in the auto industry. Many hours are worked 7 days, many 10hr shifts. I've been there.....


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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2020 5:57 pm 
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CDB
There are many companies that run 24/7 and none of them have their employees work 7 days/week.
I have seen many interesting work schedules that make this possible in my career.

Steve

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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2020 6:05 pm 
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Joined: Mon Dec 26, 2011 9:52 am
Posts: 522
Location: Eastern Kentucky
How many first line distributor (master distributors I thing Federal calls them) does the factory ship to. Then what, how many levels exist between the manufacture and your local source. My recent experience is nothing on shelves at 4 local big box stores, nothing on shelves at 6 local gun stores that normally carry good supply. Nothing on shelves at the online sources that are usually well stocked. If their manufacturing and shipping where is it going. At the world skeet shoot shell house in Oct. I could not buy any 410 shells in #9 shot, only 8s.


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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2020 6:38 pm 
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YevetS wrote:
CDB
There are many companies that run 24/7 and none of them have their employees work 7 days/week.
I have seen many interesting work schedules that make this possible in my career.

Steve


Been there done that, did swing shifts, 12 hr shifts 6 days a week. Even started my own business, and worked ungodly hours. None of those interesting or creative schedules make for a good family life.


cdb

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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2020 6:43 pm 
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chips&clays wrote:
CDB..

You wouldn't last long working in the auto industry. Many hours are worked 7 days, many 10hr shifts. I've been there.....


Been there done that, I think I could have handled the auto industry.


cdb

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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2020 6:56 pm 
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Worked on the Rail Road for 20+ years. You might go to work at noon on one day and midnight the next. And you never really knew when you were going to be home again. I made lots of money on the RR but I never had any time to spend it. My wife liked the money. We use to call ourselves "rich Hobos"

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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2020 7:49 pm 
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When the first ammo shortage happened, I could sympathized with the ammo makers. They were caught with their pants down, having no reserve capacity or inventory to meet an unforeseen spike in demand.

That can be attributed to a lack of manufacturing capacity, lack of inventory, or both. Long term, you have to re-assess whether your production capability accurately matches actual demand. Unfortunately, when you get into the 'empty shelves; running flat-out" stage, you don't know what actual demand was. All you know is that you didn't produce enough to meet it. Until you can sell everything you're making and supplement that with inventory and never run out of product to sell, you don't know what actual demand is or how big your production capacity needs to be.

That's the purpose of inventory--to take care of the spikes in demand. But to get a handle on how much inventory you need, you have to have enough to weather the increased demand until it returns to 'normal.' That could be a little or it could be a lot. If it's a lot, you need to take a hard look at increasing production capability.

Two facts emerge from these ammo shortages. First, is that ammo demand is not constant. Second, is that ammo manufacturers don't know how to deal with that, because we've been through these 'empty shelves' exercises before.

As long as ammo makers continue to refuse to carry adequate inventory, these shortages will continue. Customers end up assuming the role of 'warehousing' inventory but only for themselves or to participate in the market as black market suppliers.

Nobody is happy with this.

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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:41 pm 
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I should have known better. I am beginning to question folks ability to reason.

Do folks think that there is a line dedicated for each caliber/gauge? Do folks think that companies try to guess about future demand? Do folks think that the suppliers of components are sitting around with nothing to do until Federal calls them? Do folks think that Federal was sitting around with nothing to do until everyone realized that Trump wasn't going to get re-elected, and started hoarding ammo ........again? Do folks think that manufacturing lines don't run as fast as possible and that there is a secret 'turbo' switch to make them go faster? Do folks think that the manufacturers are holding back because they don't want increased revenue? Do folks think that manufacturers try to have inventory like they did back in 1972 or do folks realize this is 2020 and the thought of having inventory went away during the late 1980's?

Will common sense or black helicopter theories prevail?

My money is on black helicopter theories.......again!

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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:51 pm 
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With this giant vacuum sucking in all we can make here in the US, why are we not seeing imports from all over the world attempt to fill the gap? Or maybe we are. I just don’t see any evidence of it

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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2020 9:05 pm 
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cdb1097 wrote:
If their factories were working 5 days a week, and work 3 shifts, if they worked OT every week, you are only adding 104 days of production a year, and that would be working every single day. That is impossible to do. I sure as hell would not work 7 days a week for very long!! Machinery breaks down, need maintenance. As the old saying goes................."This to shall pass"
cdb


They run 24/7 and have for some time:

"As of July 2017, 1,100 employees worked on four shifts at Federal Premium's site in Anoka, Minnesota. Federal Premium had doubled its number of employees at its Anoka facilities since 2003 and invested in new buildings and equipment. Until shortly after the election of 2016, 1,400 worked for Federal Premium in Anoka. After the election, there was a huge drop in sales of ammunition, causing a mass layoff and buyouts of employees totaling around 300. Raw materials are brought to the factory by rail. Production runs 24-hours per day, seven days per week. Some of the machinery in use at Anoka dates back to the 1940s. Federal has also modernized much of its production process with help from Lewiston, Idaho based CCI, another Vista Outdoor subsidiary. The company's quality control allows defects to be traced back to the employees who oversaw the loading of any substandard ammunition detected.[6] The Federal Premium complex in Anoka has four different factories with a floor area of at least 700,000 square feet. The facility is vertically integrated to the extent that raw natural materials enter and leave as finished products.[7][8]

Federal uses recycled lead from car batteries, brass, and plastic as production inputs. The Anoka compound also has a modern water-treatment plant built in 2014.[8]

Federal has worked with a local non-profit group to employ people with disabilities since 1987.[8]"


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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2020 9:52 pm 
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Joined: Sun May 17, 2015 6:25 pm
Posts: 2704
Location: On the wrong side of the river, Austin TX
Zbigniew wrote:
When the first ammo shortage happened, I could sympathized with the ammo makers. They were caught with their pants down, having no reserve capacity or inventory to meet an unforeseen spike in demand.

That can be attributed to a lack of manufacturing capacity, lack of inventory, or both. Long term, you have to re-assess whether your production capability accurately matches actual demand. Unfortunately, when you get into the 'empty shelves; running flat-out" stage, you don't know what actual demand was. All you know is that you didn't produce enough to meet it. Until you can sell everything you're making and supplement that with inventory and never run out of product to sell, you don't know what actual demand is or how big your production capacity needs to be.

That's the purpose of inventory--to take care of the spikes in demand. But to get a handle on how much inventory you need, you have to have enough to weather the increased demand until it returns to 'normal.' That could be a little or it could be a lot. If it's a lot, you need to take a hard look at increasing production capability.

Two facts emerge from these ammo shortages. First, is that ammo demand is not constant. Second, is that ammo manufacturers don't know how to deal with that, because we've been through these 'empty shelves' exercises before.

As long as ammo makers continue to refuse to carry adequate inventory, these shortages will continue. Customers end up assuming the role of 'warehousing' inventory but only for themselves or to participate in the market as black market suppliers.

Nobody is happy with this.


It costs money to inventory a lot of stock and that price has to be added to the product. The warehouse space is costly and so is the fact that your capital is tied up in unsold inventory. With a product as price competitive as .22 ammo and shotgun shells, the ammo companies really can't afford the luxury of a high inventory of unsold product.

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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:23 pm 
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Joined: Sun Mar 03, 2013 11:01 am
Posts: 6404
Location: Newton Kansas
cdb1097 wrote:
If their factories were working 5 days a week, and work 3 shifts, if they worked OT every week, you are only adding 104 days of production a year, and that would be working every single day. That is impossible to do. I sure as hell would not work 7 days a week for very long!! Machinery breaks down, need maintenance. As the old saying goes................."This to shall pass"



cdb

I have done am inperial sh##ton of 7's this year.

Between the end of January and Thanksgiving, I think I saw about 7 days off, and that COUNTS the Federal Holidays we were closed.

Post Thanksgiving, I worked a week, took 10 days off for Deer Season, and am back at it until the end of the year, minus X-mas Eve and Day, then I am taking another 17 days off hunting.

And no, I don't make ammo, I fix airplanes.

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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:46 pm 
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We’ve got an Eaton plant here that makes engine valves. Ask around here whether anyone has ever worked 7 days a week, and for how long! You’ll find out in a hurry that 7 day weeks are very common. Then again layoffs are part of the equation. The automobile industry is feast or famine, engine parts are at the bottom of the hill. You work 7 days a week for a year and a half and then feel lucky you get in 24 hours instead of being laid off for the next 6 months.

BP

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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:01 pm 
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Ammunition is the new toilet paper. Last week I met a guy on a deer hunt who was shooting Hornady .33-378 loads. He said he’d managed to buy 20 boxes of it—expensive stuff, by the way—and in fact had bought 20 boxes for each of his guns. I asked ‘how many guns?’ and he said, ‘I have 12, so 2,400 rounds. It cost me over $3,000.’ -- Jason Hornady

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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:41 pm 
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That was cheap. Look at what 9mm is going for.



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