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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Thu Dec 24, 2020 11:49 pm 
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Amazing how things change.. Over time if I take advantage of sales and bargains and build up a personal inventory of "shootin stuff" I am just being prudent.... But, when a shortage of anything shows up" I am suddenly a hoarder. Glad US manufacturers are producing all they can but seems it would only be prudent business practice to up the import of those brands they sell that come from outside the USA.... Couple of folks I visit with from overseas do not indicate there is any great shortage on that side of the water... Larry




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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Fri Dec 25, 2020 4:15 am 
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I hope they bring production, to full.
Then start developing more good loads.
Shotshell manufacturers here are seasonal.


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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Fri Dec 25, 2020 4:58 am 
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I hope they bring production, to full.
Then start developing more good loads.
Shotshell manufacturers here are seasonal.


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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Fri Dec 25, 2020 11:05 am 
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The component supply train is broken and with the Non-tox movement surely this shortage
has had some delays because of , waiting to see who our leader will be ? I hate to think of it
being that way but with the fake news on his side , how can we not speculate what's up ?

People are inline buying tickets to get the hell out of this crummy state and our leader is
levying a TAX on them , for leaving so , is this what our nation is coming to , also ! Shameful

Some of us , know , what a Bad Moon is already !


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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Fri Dec 25, 2020 11:27 am 
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What State?

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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sat Dec 26, 2020 1:22 am 
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casonet wrote:
What State?


The state of denial.

I can remember some old man in the barbershop griping on and on about that damned Joe Kennedy and the Pope controlling America to where they were fluoridating the drinking water, and I asked Daddy about that, and he said we got all our water from a good deep well and not to pay any attention to that old man. Still yet I wondered about the Humansville water tower being safe from them varmits on the Trilateral Commission controlled by the Rothchilds, but since Grandma claimed we were descended from the Rothchilds, I doubted they’d risk poisoning their kinfolk.

If you’d like to find the culprit behind the ammunition shortage, you see him when you shave every morning.

Ain’t he a handsome devil?

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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:40 pm 
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Unless the company is a family business, you can't just startup a new factory or buy new equipment. These choices have to be approved by a board of directors and then financed by some issuance of capital (bond sales, stock sales, etc). Then it usually takes a budget cycle to move ( a year ). I sell $M capital equipment so this is my world. NO CEO is going to risk his rear on millions of dollars of equipment for a temporary spike in demand. Growth rates are expected at less than 5% and production is usually some measure of that Hornady's 30% is phenomenal.

A lot of the shotshell market was slowed when Italy shut down for months and no ammo was made. An importer friend told me he had multiple container loads that were just on back-order back in July. It started to loosen up when the Thanksgiving and Christmas spikes hit and once again we're on back-order.

Don't underestimate the financial cost of inventory. Our company started managing inventory and reworked production, and our financial performance skyrocketed. Our stock price reflected it, too. So why is it Brand X's job to stock inventory and hurt their financial performance in hopes of some scare that might or might not come?

Finally, we're in the paper business, and have seen multiple times when 7 days, 12 hrs is "normal" to get through some technical issue that gets a company behind in it's production. As a supplier that's when you earn your money in helping the customer get through those times to where production gets back to "normal".

This shortage will pass when wives start noticing how much ammo Jr. is stacking in the basement.

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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Fri Jan 01, 2021 1:23 pm 
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My wife’s reloading hobby is home canning, and just like the cartridge and shot shell reloading hobbies there’s a shortage of most articles used in home canning, except for kosher salt.

All American canners are the Dillions of home canning, because they are good, heavy, and require no replaceable seals. All models of All American canners are on back order until August 2021.

Presto canners are the Lee Precision canners, and I’ve studied both the All American brand and Presto, and I’d rather use the Presto. The Presto is light and cheap, but it’s designed where it would be extremely hard to blow it up. They need a cheap replaceable seal, but they also use a replaceable blow out plug that takes a little fear out of home canning.

The releasable lids are as impossible to buy as primers right now.

Instead she’s bought out the Mennonite canning supply stores of complete canning jars.

Millions of women are home with their husbands in the garage reloading.

I’ve got to go drain some kind of big pot, full of cheap chicken parts.

While 173 30-06 cases finish polishing.

Life is so glamorous, during lockdown.

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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Fri Jan 01, 2021 4:34 pm 
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pintailwizard wrote:
Unless the company is a family business, you can't just startup a new factory or buy new equipment. These choices have to be approved by a board of directors and then financed by some issuance of capital (bond sales, stock sales, etc). Then it usually takes a budget cycle to move ( a year ). I sell $M capital equipment so this is my world. NO CEO is going to risk his rear on millions of dollars of equipment for a temporary spike in demand. Growth rates are expected at less than 5% and production is usually some measure of that Hornady's 30% is phenomenal.
This isn't "a" temporary spike in user demand. It's getting to be a regular occurrence.

The fact that "no CEO is willing to risk his rear" to have satisfied customers is the problem, not the solution unless empty shelves and PO'd customers is the goal. I guess CEO's and corporate boards can look at empty shelves and congratulate themselves--they sold all they made. But that ignores the additional amount that could have been sold, if only it had been available for customers to buy.

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Don't underestimate the financial cost of inventory. Our company started managing inventory and reworked production, and our financial performance skyrocketed. Our stock price reflected it, too. So why is it Brand X's job to stock inventory and hurt their financial performance in hopes of some scare that might or might not come?
Only if they want satisfied customers. But thanks to modern business practices, that doesn't seem to be very important. I haven't underestimated warehousing costs, I haven't even estimated it yet. First you have to have a quantity that needs to be stored and nobody seems to know what that quantity is; all they know is it costs "too much" to store. BTW, ever wonder why cities have water towers? Supplying pressure isn't their only function; a 1/4" standpipe 100' tall will pressurize a system the same as a full size 100' tall water tower. Can't the pumps keep up with whatever demand for water there may be?

Quote:
Finally, we're in the paper business, and have seen multiple times when 7 days, 12 hrs is "normal" to get through some technical issue that gets a company behind in it's production. As a supplier that's when you earn your money in helping the customer get through those times to where production gets back to "normal".
I'm sure some employees appreciate 44 hours of overtime per week but not all, especially females with children. You could have done the same "helping the customer get through those times" by having a production reserve, aka inventory. Has anybody every bothered to calculate just how big that inventory needs to be and what it costs to store it? Or do we just repeat the mantra that "inventory kills profit" because that's what the training session told us (I've been to them) and never even bother to investigate how much inventory is needed to get through a demand spike?

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This shortage will pass when wives start noticing how much ammo Jr. is stacking in the basement.
There it is, the dreaded inventory, stored willingly in peoples' basements without concern to the cost because they've lost faith in the ammo manufacturers ability to supply it. Completely unnecessary in an ammo supply system that works, as it used to. It would be one thing if I was arguing to fix something that had never worked in the past but that just isn't the case with ammo. It used to work perfectly well until manufacturing "experts" worked their profit-maximizing magic on the system.

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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:49 am 
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I would *guess* that ammo manufacturers do maintain a substantial inventory for many months out of the year. I have no insider knowledge, this is all guesswork.

Some calibres, let's say 9x19 and 5.56, are popular enough that they probably have dedicated production lines. Other calibers are ran on production lines that are switched over to whatever is on the schedule.

I would guess most centerfire rifle ammo is sold to consumers September thru November. The ammo companies have to have enough 243, 270, 30-30, etc. to ship when the distributors start ordering for the fall ramp up. That means that at some point the companies had to set up and run off enough 30-30, etc. to meet the forecasted demand. With only small sales of these cartridges in the off season.

Same principle would apply to dove and quail loads, pheasant loads, handgun ammo, etc.

If I am right, this means that for some months of the year the ammo companies are sitting on a year's worth of inventory.

And for oddball cartridges such as 10 gage, 300 Savage, 32 H&R, etc. the production run is probably more than a single year's worth.

Anyone with industry knowledge out there who can confirm or deny my musings?

Sent from my SM-T727V using Tapatalk


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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:27 pm 
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Zbigniew wrote:
This isn't "a" temporary spike in user demand. It's getting to be a regular occurrence.


It is temporary and unpredictable. Only a fool of a CEO would hire new employees and manufacturing facilities to accommodate an unpredictable temporary surge in demand.


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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Jan 03, 2021 2:12 pm 
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Location: Covington, WA USA
DEG wrote:
Zbigniew wrote:
This isn't "a" temporary spike in user demand. It's getting to be a regular occurrence.


It is temporary and unpredictable. Only a fool of a CEO would hire new employees and manufacturing facilities to accommodate an unpredictable temporary surge in demand.

It's neither "temporary", nor "unpredictable", - only a fool would believe that ....

He said in the be beginning that it was all of the "new" shooters since March that caused it.

So for this to be "temporary", it would mean that said "new" shooters would just magically "go away", and that there would be no new/additional shooters.

Moreover, the entire premise of the video is bogus in my view. What is the "purpose" ?

Dispel rumors ? Why is he going out of his way so much to do that ?

And why is he asking people to be loyal to his brand and whatever ? i.e. if they have no product to sell, and no one can buy their product, what exactly is there to me "loyal" to ?

And hording ? heh, - you ain't seen NOTIN yet babe ...

If/when (metallic pistol) ammo comes back, I myself will be buying and hording 10's of THOUSANDS of dollars of pistol ammo. Same goes for small pistol primers.

Never again .....

(Thank you Grafs for the Vectan, thank you Natchez for the $27 shotguns primers)

pintailwizard wrote:
This shortage will pass when wives start noticing how much ammo Jr. is stacking in the basement.

That's a farce, and not realistic ...

In households where the 'husband' wares the pants (and not the wives), the shortage will worsen when the pants-wareing husbands realizes just how LITTLE ammo that Jr. is hording.

Think I'm kidding ? .....


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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Jan 03, 2021 2:29 pm 
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I hope you are more “right” than you were about the election

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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Jan 03, 2021 2:55 pm 
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casonet wrote:
I hope you are more “right” than you were about the election

If you recall, I attempted to bet $500 (overseas) on Biden for the win, but my credit card transaction wouldn't go thru.

"hording" is a natural action, and natural protection against the "machine". The previous .22LR shortage taught us that, and if that didn't, then the first toilet paper shortage should have taught you that, and then the second toilet paper shortage certainly should have.

Hording will become a way of life from here on it. Be it car parts, nonperishable housewares, and consumables, as well as firearm supplies.

...then there will be a run on self-storage units popping up all over place to store the stuff. ;)


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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:18 pm 
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DEG wrote:
Zbigniew wrote:
This isn't "a" temporary spike in user demand. It's getting to be a regular occurrence.


It is temporary and unpredictable. Only a fool of a CEO would hire new employees and manufacturing facilities to accommodate an unpredictable temporary surge in demand.


Nobody, including me, is saying they should. Let's get the notion that the only way to accommodate an ammo shortage is to build a new factory or expand an existing one, off the table. You only build a new factory when the combination of production capacity plus inventory combined cannot meet the demand. Compared to building a new factory, keeping an inventory to supplement production in times of high demand is dirt cheap.

I'm tired of hearing this "can't be done" or "only a fool CEO would" excuse. If I hadn't lived through equally turbulent times as these without have to search here, there and everywhere for things from ammo to toilet paper, I might believe that line, too. But I did, and I don't.

If the goal is go keep the shelves stocked with ammo (and it should be, unless you like the present system of feast or famine), then what advice would you give to the CEOs of the current US ammo companies as to how to accomplish this? Let's hear your ideas.

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-Political Correctness
-Insurance
-Securitization
Take your pick.

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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Jan 03, 2021 4:22 pm 
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DEG wrote:
Zbigniew wrote:
This isn't "a" temporary spike in user demand. It's getting to be a regular occurrence.


It is temporary and unpredictable. Only a fool of a CEO would hire new employees and manufacturing facilities to accommodate an unpredictable temporary surge in demand.


You must think Sig Sauer is run by fools, Vista Outdoor is run by fools, and Fiocchi is run by fools. Vista just spent $81.4 million for Remington ammo . . . and that's just for openers. Sig Sauer has expanded their Jacksonville ammo plant. Fiocchi is spending $15 million on a new manufacturing facility in Little Rock.

They don't think it is temporary.

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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Jan 03, 2021 7:55 pm 
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RandyWakeman wrote:
You must think Sig Sauer is run by fools, Vista Outdoor is run by fools, and Fiocchi is run by fools. Vista just spent $81.4 million for Remington ammo . . . and that's just for openers. Sig Sauer has expanded their Jacksonville ammo plant. Fiocchi is spending $15 million on a new manufacturing facility in Little Rock.


Sig Sauer produces metallic ammo only.

Fiocchi's new plant is for metallic.

Vista bought Remington at a fire-sale price. And Remington produces a lot of metallic ammo, probably more than Federal/Estate. Probably much more. Maybe Vista wanted more of that capacity and market. Rio pulled out of the U.S. shotgun ammo market.

So how many of those new gun owners bought shotguns.....target shotguns? Betcha most of those new gun owners were buying handguns and some AR types. There won't be much long-term demand for shotgun ammo from them.

I don't expect Federal, Estate, Remington, Fiocchi, and Winchester to allow much of their limited primer producing facilities to be used for primers for reloaders.

If you think this was panic buying, wait to see what real panic buying looks like if Biden can't complete his four years. How do you pronounce Kamala?


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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Jan 03, 2021 8:20 pm 
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J.Fred_Muggs wrote:
How do you pronounce Kamala?

Well, from what I've been told, if you pronounce it wrong, you are RACISSSSSS!!!!!!

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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Jan 03, 2021 8:24 pm 
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J.Fred_Muggs wrote:
Vista bought Remington at a fire-sale price.

Yeah, and at a price which was more than what Smith and Ruger, who were also bidding on them were willing to pay. And Smith is a $Billion market cap company. :shock:

J.Fred_Muggs wrote:
If you think this was panic buying, wait to see what real panic buying looks like if Biden can't complete his four years. How do you pronounce Kamala?

heh, - only one problem with that vision: There won't be much of ANY kind of "buying", panic or otherwise, cause there ain't notin TO buy ! :shock:

In other news, it's good to see that Grafs still has Vectan A1, and 206V available. ;)

Maybe I'll buy all of that out, sit on it, then wait for some other fellow hoarder to run out of powder, and then I can trade powder for small pistol primers. :?

As far as SJ (Sleepy Joe), I think all of that stuff is already built into the current shortage. I could be wrong.

So Valerie and I were in the area yesterday, so we went to the Tacoma Washington Bass Pro (~40 miles South of Seattle) :

Image

But the really ODD thing is, that there was a MOB of people in the way of getting to those empty shelves (but not at the shelves themselves).

Studying the situation a bit more, I figured it out! There were about 4-5 lines in front of the gun counter (and display cases), and they were calling numbers.

So we cut in front of the lines just to get out of the dam place, and I pointed out to Valerie, just how empty the glass gun cases were, and I pointed out the one on in the center which was *COMPLETELY* empty. In fact, the only display case which had anything in it, only had about 4-5 expensive ( > $700) .45 ACP's.

The other noteworthy thing that I noticed, was that almost all of them were young couples with half of the people in those lines being female. The females could have just been there with their husbands, or boyfriends (much like I was), I dunno.

So they weren't there to look at handguns, cause there were no handguns TO look at. So they were either AR's, or shotguns.

There was "some" shotgun ammo on the shelves opposite the empty metallic ammo shelves, but there wasn't much.

Eerily strange (and odd to say the least).

Made me want to go home, walk out to the shed, flip the light on and check on my Rio primer and Vectan powder stash.

Whew! - safe there!


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 Post subject: Re: Message from Federal
PostPosted: Sun Jan 03, 2021 9:09 pm 
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Republican wrote:
J.Fred_Muggs wrote:
Vista bought Remington at a fire-sale price.

Yeah, and at a price which was more than what Smith and Ruger, who were also bidding on them were willing to pay. And Smith is a $Billion market cap company. :shock:

J.Fred_Muggs wrote:
If you think this was panic buying, wait to see what real panic buying looks like if Biden can't complete his four years. How do you pronounce Kamala?

heh, - only one problem with that vision: There won't be much of ANY kind of "buying", panic or otherwise, cause there ain't notin TO buy ! :shock:


In the spring of 1978 my dear old Roosevelt hating, author grandmother sold her house in Hermatige, Missouri to a former Republican state Senator (and a distant relative by marriage) who said he was buying her house for him and his attorney wife to live in while he was Superintendent of schools across the street. The site today is part of the 1979 expansion of the school. Even though the school paid two prices for it, I think I learned to hate politicians for lying to my my grandmother, about that.

Grandma was moving to old age housing at Humansville, to be closer to my mother, her daughter. She started giving things away, to her three children and six of her seven grandchildren before she moved. I refused to take anything, because I didn’t want to feel like a thief. Her three children and six other grandchildren had no such scruples, and by the time she was ready to move, they were all fighting among themselves over what the other had taken they wanted to take themselves, that they were all mad at Grandma for letting somebody else take what they wanted. She called me crying saying she had nobody to help her move.

I told her I’d help her move on one condition. That we move her kitchen stuff first, and she showed my girlfriend how to make up a cherry, apple, and blackberry pie, but without rhubarb. I’d buy all the makings, if she gave my girlfriend the list, but she had to do the instruction.

My girlfriend and her kid sister were ready that day, with a big box of pie makings, plus three (store limit) large cans of coffee.

I asked why the coffee, and they said they had a special three big three pound cans for ten dollars as a loss leader. Usually coffee was four or five dollars a pound, but recently the stores had these specials.

There was a coffee shortage on, I’d never heard about, because I didn’t drink coffee.

When I got to Grandma’s house she’d also bought three big cans of coffee, for ten dollars.

The welcome committee of the old folks housing brought over a welcome basket, that had three big cans of coffee.

And after all the work was done, my mother came in trying to make peace, bearing a gift of three big cans of coffee.

I think I started to learn to like coffee, that day.

Grandma said she wanted to live long enough to drink up all her coffee, and she did.

The pies were wonderful, as always.

I asked Grandma how my girlfriend was coming along learning how to bake pies, and she said I was going out with the wrong sister.

She said her younger sister was kind, sweet, good and looked at me like I was a piece of candy, and was prettier too.

She said my girlfriend was just about as hateful and bossy as my mother, then she laughed.

We all laughed, because old people say the damnest things.

Usually because, they can tell the truth without being taken seriously.


She made me take her Victrola, my grandfather’s .22 rifle, his second best watch, and a keepsake bell that day. I said my cousins will all be mad at me, and she replied they already are, so you might as well have what I saved for you.

I can remember leaving, wondering how long a dozen big cans of coffee, would stay fresh enough to drink.

Shortages end, with a glutted market.



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