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I never thought I would ever say this but I really think all this shell shortage is the biggest bunch of BS I have ever heard of.

You can bet that when the prices go up the shelves will be full.

All these shell makers keep telling us that they are making shells as fast as they can.

Where are they going?
 

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Southwick Associates released data in May, 2021, showing that ammunition demand is not slowing. The research found that two thirds of ammunition consumers said current inventory was lower than preferred and that over 80% would like to add more.

The influx of over 10 million new gun owners into Shooting Sports has fundamentally changed demand dynamics. Mix is no longer a good leading indicator demand for ammunition. In forecasting our business, we have instead shifted our focus to the unprecedented level of ammunition and consumption, low retail and consumer inventories and our own multi-billion-dollar order backlog, all of which indicate that demand is very strong and will be for the foreseeable future, regardless of next steps. ---

Chris Metz, JUly 29.
 

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Randy, Do they break down the kind of firearms these new owners are buying?

How many would be buying shotgun ammo?
 
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I have seen plenty of shotgun ammo. Academy here has hundreds of boxes of basic Federal target loads for $9-$10/box, along with Estates and some Monarch. Walmart actually had some Nitro Gold 4 packs along with Estate and Federal.

A LOT of Federal steel 4 packs around here as well.
 

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The prices have gone up, at the wholesale level, 2 or 3 times this year, and the shelves are still bare.

Target shotshells are BY FAR the lowest level of priority for manufacturers. Why on earth would you make a box of 12ga that retails for 7 bucks when you can take the same materials and make 4 boxes of 9mm that retail for $80+? The same powder that's used for shotgun shells can go into handgun ammo, the same lead, copper, and brass as well, and I suspect the priming compound too.

I'll say it again, ammo manufacturers don't care about target shotshells in tough times, lowest profit margin product they produce. I know everyone wants there to be a grand conspiracy that manufacturers and dealers are just licking their chops to release Federal Top Guns @ 15 bucks a box and open the floodgates, but it's time to face reality, when the going gets tough the mfgs don't GAF about clay target shooters.
 

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It is not just shotgun ammo that has low inventory, even though it seems to getting slightly better in our area.

Go look at the new car lots......almost empty. Try to buy a new E-Z-Go cart; our local dealer is selling new units based on (possible) February 2022 deliveries, if you hurry because in another day or so it will be March 2022 is what they report.
 

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hawkeye55 said:
It is not just shotgun ammo that has low inventory, even though it seems to getting slightly better in our area.

Go look at the new car lots......almost empty. Try to buy a new E-Z-Go cart; our local dealer is selling new units based on (possible) February 2022 deliveries, if you hurry because in another day or so it will be March 2022 is what they report.
Vehicles are in short supply because of the chip shortage from the only factory in Taiwan.
 

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oneounceload said:
hawkeye55 said:
It is not just shotgun ammo that has low inventory, even though it seems to getting slightly better in our area.

Go look at the new car lots......almost empty. Try to buy a new E-Z-Go cart; our local dealer is selling new units based on (possible) February 2022 deliveries, if you hurry because in another day or so it will be March 2022 is what they report.
Vehicles are in short supply because of the chip shortage from the only factory in Taiwan.
How about the arsenic (required to make shot) shortage in the US?
 

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My local gun shop has a $20 price tag on Monarch small game loads. They have plenty but most of the shoppers are not biting. I think his prices will be lowering when he gets tired of looking at them. I saw several looking and moving on. Looks like he has a huge inventory.
 

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Funny there were hundreds of pallets of shotgun ammo at the "grand" a couple of weeks ago.
Trap shooters must have a lot of pull in the industry.
 

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I think the demand -- combination of increased demand as people perhaps bought and put away some of that ammo and then all the new shooters we got, when we look at those numbers from the National Shooting Sports Foundation of, 8 million to 12 million potential new shooters, that's also spurred that increased demand.

And I think between those new shooters coming in, the resumption of ammunition production in the Remington facilities now operated by Vista, I think all of that probably is -- is probably getting us closer back to normal in the ammunition world, but we've still got a long way to go. I still get -- I hear from consumers who say they can't find ammo. So I think it's probably a mixed bag out there depending on where you are.
-- Comments from Christopher Killoy - President, CEO & Director during Sturm Ruger & Company, Inc. Q2 2021 Earnings Conference Call August 5, 2021 10:00 AM ET.
 

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Academy had 2 pallets of shotgun ammo on the floor and full shelves. Estate, Gun Club and Super X. Walmart lots of Estate four packs and Super X. Dove season is approaching. All the above was under $6.50 a box. The prices will never self correct. Why would they? The preppers, hoarders and scalpers are making the market? I get e-mails every morning from Academy asking me to buy shotgun ammo.
 

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lt0026 said:
Academy had 2 pallets of shotgun ammo on the floor and full shelves. Estate, Gun Club and Super X. Walmart lots of Estate four packs and Super X. Dove season is approaching. All the above was under $6.50 a box. The prices will never self correct. Why would they? The preppers, hoarders and scalpers are making the market? I get e-mails every morning from Academy asking me to buy shotgun ammo.
The Academy shelves in Texas are empty. The last time I saw some there they were $8.50 a box for Gun Clubs.
 

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lt0026 said:
The prices will never self correct. Why would they? The preppers, hoarders and scalpers are making the market?
Of course they will. Prices were up and supply was limited during Obama times, albeit not as bad as it is now. By the middle of the Trump term between coupons, rebates, CC cashback, and store loyalty points I was buying Top Guns for a little over $3/box w/ tax...

"Preppers, hoarders, and scalpers" DON'T make the market, the buyer does. If someone is willing to pay more for an item than you are, that doesn't make the seller the bad guy for taking it. In a capitalist society, the seller NEVER sets the price, the buyer does. Eventually the "preppers and hoarders" finally believe they have enough, and stop buying at pretty much any price. This can most readily be seen w/ 22lr, those who panic bought during Obama times still have most if not all of their stash, and the prices of 22s never got as crazy this go around.
 

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Last time around you weren't dealing with COVID, $15 min wage, inflation, raw material prices, trade war with China and the government printing money like crazy. Good ammo is well over $100 a flat. It isn't coming back down to $75-80. The preppers,hoarders and scalpers are in the market. And they are active.
 

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Now $69.99 a flat by me at Academy for 1 oz 1290 fps Super X. In stock ready for pick up. Haven't been to Walmart yet. They had them for 6.40 a box but with a 3 box limit.
 
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