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I think you heard wrong. Or it depends on what someone means by "a little."

My chart below shows lead has dropped to around $1.30 a pound on the world market, but it'll be a good while before anything like that trickles down to the retail level.

Any merchant who bought shot at those high prices will maintain his markup based on that until he has to reorder.

I wouldn't be holding my breath on any significant lower prices anytime soon.

Even if lead drops below $1 a pound on the market, it'll still be outrageously overpriced compared to what it always was before the insanity settled in.
 

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Case said:
Any merchant who bought shot at those high prices will maintain his markup based on that until he has to reorder.

I wouldn't be holding my breath on any significant lower prices anytime soon.

Even if lead drops below $1 a pound on the market, it'll still be outrageously overpriced compared to what it always was before the insanity settled in.
SHUT UP! SHUT UP SHUT UP SHUT UP!!!!

LALALALALALALALALALALA
 

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Case said:
I think you heard wrong. Or it depends on what someone means by "a little."

My chart below shows lead has dropped to around $1.30 a pound on the world market, but it'll be a good while before anything like that trickles down to the retail level.

Any merchant who bought shot at those high prices will maintain his markup based on that until he has to reorder.

I wouldn't be holding my breath on any significant lower prices anytime soon.

Even if lead drops below $1 a pound on the market, it'll still be outrageously overpriced compared to what it always was before the insanity settled in.
well if that's the case you should look into purchasing Raw Lead and creating your own shot. Eliminates the problem you just described above. Lead is a commodity thus the prices adjust with demand and with the market value. If you're incapable of Adjusting with the market you will lose.
Gas stations that do not adjust their gas prices to reflect current rates do not make money. Notice the gas station selling fuel at 3.09 a gallon is making money and has 30 cars fueling up, while the Station selling fuel at last months' price of $3.49 is losing money because there aren't any cars outside.

Consumers do not care about the store front making a profit they care about paying what something's worth. That's why the Economy and the housing markets are readjusting as well. I like hearing the home owners that are selling say things like "Well I paid 400k for my house 2 years ago. I was offered 240k this week. I'll wait until prices go back up. " Ok, and you'll go bankrupt in the process. I don't know many store front owners that can afford to take that sort of stance. It will take years for prices to readjust, if we as consumers band together and hold out on making purchases from those that refuse to readjust their prices they will be forced to adjust. It's basic economics.
Stop buying Shot at $50, wait a month or two and they will have to bring prices back down to reflect the current price of $20-22 like it was 2 years ago and like the market dictates the price is. It's still higher than 3 years ago. Everyone wins.
 

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Rinaldo said:
Case said:
I think you heard wrong. Or it depends on what someone means by "a little."

My chart below shows lead has dropped to around $1.30 a pound on the world market, but it'll be a good while before anything like that trickles down to the retail level.

Any merchant who bought shot at those high prices will maintain his markup based on that until he has to reorder.

I wouldn't be holding my breath on any significant lower prices anytime soon.

Even if lead drops below $1 a pound on the market, it'll still be outrageously overpriced compared to what it always was before the insanity settled in.
well if that's the case you should look into purchasing Raw Lead and creating your own shot. Eliminates the problem you just described above. Lead is a commodity thus the prices adjust with demand and with the market value. If you're incapable of Adjusting with the market you will lose.
Gas stations that do not adjust their gas prices to reflect current rates do not make money. Notice the gas station selling fuel at 3.09 a gallon is making money and has 30 cars fueling up, while the Station selling fuel at last months' price of $3.49 is losing money because there aren't any cars outside.

Consumers do not care about the store front making a profit they care about paying what something's worth. That's why the Economy and the housing markets are readjusting as well. I like hearing the home owners that are selling say things like "Well I paid 400k for my house 2 years ago. I was offered 240k this week. I'll wait until prices go back up. " Ok, and you'll go bankrupt in the process. I don't know many store front owners that can afford to take that sort of stance. It will take years for prices to readjust, if we as consumers band together and hold out on making purchases from those that refuse to readjust their prices they will be forced to adjust. It's basic economics.
Stop buying Shot at $50, wait a month or two and they will have to bring prices back down to reflect the current price of $20-22 like it was 2 years ago and like the market dictates the price is. It's still higher than 3 years ago. Everyone wins.
How is that plan working on the taxes and insurance costs in FL.? Are you holding out until they come down? :roll:
 

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Rinaldo said:
I like hearing the home owners that are selling say things like "Well I paid 400k for my house 2 years ago. I was offered 240k this week. I'll wait until prices go back up. " Ok, and you'll go bankrupt in the process.
You and I must have had different economics professors. :lol:

If a guy's into a house for $400K, he probably financed $380K of the purchase price. If he sells for $240K he's liable for the +/-$140K deficit (there might be a slight principal reduction through normal amortization, but one must also factor in significant closing costs and commissions) to the financial institution. So I ask, is he better off continuing to live in the house and make payments until markets recover or to sell the house at a $140K+ loss that is due immediately?
 

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The problem with shot prices vs market price of lead is the scarcity of shot companies. In most areas you are dealing with one brand. The stores that buy at or near the same price will generally have them priced the same and if they buy a big supply it may last a month or two. Market swings of raw lead in the meantime will not change their store prices. If there is another store and they get a new supply at a lower price they may or may not lower their price as the competition may still have their shot priced at the higher price. If these guys ran out of shot the way gas stations do, they would be adjusting on a day to day basis but I do not think that it works that way with shot.

Around here we have only two suppliers. One buys lead and the other mines gun clubs for their shot and then redrops it. The second just prices his product based on the others prices and he is now making a much higher profit.
 

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The whole supply & demand model only works on certain levels. Take my club's supply shop for example: they sell for ~$5/bag more than cost. There were no gas-station-style price adjustments on the way up, nor do I expect any on the way down.

And just to really blow your macro economics model, the shop owner even warned everybody early when there would be price increases!
 

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Shoot2reload said:
The whole supply & demand model only works on certain levels. Take my club's supply shop for example: they sell for ~$5/bag more than cost. There were no gas-station-style price adjustments on the way up, nor do I expect any on the way down.

And just to really blow your macro economics model, the shop owner even warned everybody early when there would be price increases!
I understand the economics involved with small business and the trickle down effect. I was just trying to put a spin on things. I can't afford to shoot and I sure can't afford to reload at the prices we're seeing now. I just wanted to try and stir up some unity. I respect shop owners, I purchase as much as I can from shops here. Unless their prices are just completely out of whack. However locally, in South Florida they take advantage of every price hike immediately and will wait to drop prices. IE, lumbar, natural gas, ammo, you name it. I'm not familiar with how things may take place elsewhere, I would love to see some honesty for once.

It used to cost $160 to shoot a 4 gauge tournament with store bought shells and all flights. Now it costs close to double that, This was a year ago! Flight costs have remained the same but ammo costs have soared. I have bills and I pay for college so I'm a little behind on finances. Investing $1000 to save $1.00 on a box of shells isn't going to help me right now. Once lead comes back down to 25 a bag I can look into purchasing a lot of lead and storing it so I can load my 28 gauge to my hearts content.
I wasn't trying to lecture anyone on Economics, I often forget that I'm speaking to professors and doctors and other educated folk in these shooting forums. Much different than say a Paintball forum :)
 

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Rinaldo said:
Shoot2reload said:
The whole supply & demand model only works on certain levels. Take my club's supply shop for example: they sell for ~$5/bag more than cost. There were no gas-station-style price adjustments on the way up, nor do I expect any on the way down.

And just to really blow your macro economics model, the shop owner even warned everybody early when there would be price increases!
I understand the economics involved with small business and the trickle down effect. I was just trying to put a spin on things. I can't afford to shoot and I sure can't afford to reload at the prices we're seeing now. I just wanted to try and stir up some unity. I respect shop owners, I purchase as much as I can from shops here. Unless their prices are just completely out of whack. However locally, in South Florida they take advantage of every price hike immediately and will wait to drop prices. IE, lumbar, natural gas, ammo, you name it. I'm not familiar with how things may take place elsewhere, I would love to see some honesty for once.

It used to cost $160 to shoot a 4 gauge tournament with store bought shells and all flights. Now it costs close to double that, This was a year ago! Flight costs have remained the same but ammo costs have soared. I have bills and I pay for college so I'm a little behind on finances. Investing $1000 to save $1.00 on a box of shells isn't going to help me right now. Once lead comes back down to 25 a bag I can look into purchasing a lot of lead and storing it so I can load my 28 gauge to my hearts content.
I wasn't trying to lecture anyone on Economics, I often forget that I'm speaking to professors and doctors and other educated folk in these shooting forums. Much different than say a Paintball forum :)
The audience that you address should not make any difference in the subject or the truth you post. Because I am a mechanic, is it ok to tell me less of the truth?
 

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Heymack said:
Rinaldo said:
I like hearing the home owners that are selling say things like "Well I paid 400k for my house 2 years ago. I was offered 240k this week. I'll wait until prices go back up. " Ok, and you'll go bankrupt in the process.
You and I must have had different economics professors. :lol:

If a guy's into a house for $400K, he probably financed $380K of the purchase price. If he sells for $240K he's liable for the +/-$140K deficit (there might be a slight principal reduction through normal amortization, but one must also factor in significant closing costs and commissions) to the financial institution. So I ask, is he better off continuing to live in the house and make payments until markets recover or to sell the house at a $140K+ loss that is due immediately?
Speculative buyers, Here in South Florida we had an influx of spec buyers from all over the country, you bought a home in 2002 for 250k sold it a year later for 350k. Everyone bought with 5 arm loans and stated no money down financing. You have the highest recorded Foreclosure rate now because homes they bought and financed for 400-800k are worth 280-550k.
The market here is going down and isn't slowing down. So they're panicking and many are foreclosing. And then there's the naive group that swear the market is already rebounding. We haven't even felt the pain of unemployment or the pain of the foreclosures yet, banks haven't even started to really collapse and the lending hasn't completely stopped, YET!
Once all those factors take effect it will be far far worse.
So that's what I was referring to, the buyers that purchased way above their means and now have no way to afford their purchase. They wanted a quick buck but they just lost a few hundred thousand bucks just as quickly.
Is the buyer of your scenario better off making payments? Not necessarily, factor in our high 1.5-2.0 % property tax rate and our very high 1.5% insurance rate plus your over priced mortgage payment and the fact that you purchased it without intending to live in it for longer than year, two max, before you sold it so you bought with a very heavily adjusted rate which is about to balloon on you. No, you're better off just selling for a loss and making a payment on 140. Or risk being foreclosed on and going through a bankruptcy.
 

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Curly-Nohair said:
The audience that you address should not make any difference in the subject or the truth you post. Because I am a mechanic, is it ok to tell me less of the truth?
I was complementing you and the other people in this forum. Everyone deserves the truth. I don't intend to insult anyone. I'm typing on a computer and I think a lot is lost.

I just thought we could look at other ways to bring the price down sooner. I would think an online shop could spring up quickly and start selling Shot at the market price. Wouldn't that be possible?
Or perhaps the shops could sell at their cost to clear out inventory and bring in lower priced shot sooner.
How difficult is it to make one's own shot from Lead ingots?
 

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Rinaldo said:
Curly-Nohair said:
The audience that you address should not make any difference in the subject or the truth you post. Because I am a mechanic, is it ok to tell me less of the truth?
I was complementing you and the other people in this forum. Everyone deserves the truth. I don't intend to insult anyone. I'm typing on a computer and I think a lot is lost.

I just thought we could look at other ways to bring the price down sooner. I would think an online shop could spring up quickly and start selling Shot at the market price. Wouldn't that be possible?
Or perhaps the shops could sell at their cost to clear out inventory and bring in lower priced shot sooner.
How difficult is it to make one's own shot from Lead ingots?
Pull up a chair and get a big cuppa joe
http://www.shotgunworld.com/bbs/viewtop ... hot+making
 

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Case said:
Any merchant who bought shot at those high prices will maintain his markup based on that until he has to reorder.
If they can afford to. If lead drops below $1 a lb., but shot prices remain at $45 to $50 a bag, how many people are going to be buying it? I'm not. And if people aren't coming into the components store to buy shot, then they're not coming in for wads, primers, powder, etc, etc, either. There comes a point where the dealer has to bite the bullet and lower prices to move products. The longer merchandise sits in his store, the less profit he makes when he eventually does sell the merchandise.

If lead keeps going the way it is, hopefully we'll see shot under $30 a bag by summer. But like Case pointed out, I don't expect it will ever go back to the 25 cent per pound level it was five years ago.

~Michael
 

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Rinaldo said:
Speculative buyers, Here in South Florida we had an influx of spec buyers from all over the country, you bought a home in 2002 for 250k sold it a year later for 350k. Everyone bought with 5 arm loans and stated no money down financing. You have the highest recorded Foreclosure rate now because homes they bought and financed for 400-800k are worth 280-550k.
The market here is going down and isn't slowing down. So they're panicking and many are foreclosing. And then there's the naive group that swear the market is already rebounding. We haven't even felt the pain of unemployment or the pain of the foreclosures yet, banks haven't even started to really collapse and the lending hasn't completely stopped, YET!
Once all those factors take effect it will be far far worse.
So that's what I was referring to, the buyers that purchased way above their means and now have no way to afford their purchase. They wanted a quick buck but they just lost a few hundred thousand bucks just as quickly.
Is the buyer of your scenario better off making payments? Not necessarily, factor in our high 1.5-2.0 % property tax rate and our very high 1.5% insurance rate plus your over priced mortgage payment and the fact that you purchased it without intending to live in it for longer than year, two max, before you sold it so you bought with a very heavily adjusted rate which is about to balloon on you. No, you're better off just selling for a loss and making a payment on 140. Or risk being foreclosed on and going through a bankruptcy.
Ah, now that you explained what you originally meant to say, things could be interpreted and perceived a bit differently.....sorry my clairvoyant abilities weren't working earlier.

If all those people are truly spec buyers and don't have a dime in the property, what incentive do they have to hang around if the market continues to plummet? They don't. They walk.
 
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