[seb7515]

LOL.

 

[Cotton Mouth]

If you understand economics, turning inward and isolating our country from a global economy would be an economic disaster for America, especially for gun markets. I own 34 guns, all of which I love. Two blackpowder rifles, one Ithaca shotgun, a Model 29 S&W, and two AR-15s are American made. The other 28 are not. I have Brownings, all from Japan and Portugal, a Nikko upland over/under from Japan, a Stoeger goose gun from Turkey, two Tikkas from Finland, Caesar Guerini from Italy, two Weatherbys, one from Italy, one from Germany. I have a .375 H&H built in the US, but the action is a Heym Mauser action from Germany. Our gun market is global, and in almost every case, the best in America is definitely not the best in the world. Trying to isolate us will most definitely not help the American economy, and the quality of guns will drop significantly. Global competition is required to maximize excellence in almost all products--especially guns.

Please explain further about the economic disaster we will face, I’m genuinely interested . A economic disaster for other countries that depend on selling to us I can see but not so much for us.

 

[Skeet_Man]

There is no ready "American Made" solution to this issue waiting in the wings to fulfill the needed volume of high end target shotguns. Kolar is top notch but already maxed out on capacity and making a dynamic business change to tool up and expand capacity to fill the void is not happening quickly if at all.

The Mainlands also own Letsch Mfg and Pioneer Products (the latter being over 100k square feet). If demand dictated, they could ramp up production VERY quickly.

 

[Skeet_Man]

The US is the largest importer of consumer grade finished goods for most large countries, and the 2nd or 3rd largest for almost all the rest.

These are the countries for which the US isn't their top 3 export destination: Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Belarus, Uzbekistan, Myanmar, Cambodia, the largest of which is Cambodia which exports as much as Minnesota.

It's the golden rule: He who has the gold makes the rules. It's a classic "They need us more than we need them" situation.

I'm kinda liking the US not being the worlds self imposed whipping boy, or at least being it to a lesser extent.

 

[D.Scott]

People seem to be underestimating the possibility of the consequences of economic warfare on multiple markets in the US.

People are underestimating the likelihood that countries who need to sell their goods here will come to the table and equalize their trade policy with their largest customer. That seems like a reasonable ask of those who want to sell their goods in, what is increasingly becoming, the "Outlet Mall Of America"

Viewing tariffs only through the prism of retail pricing, especially on discretionary items, misses the bigger picture: the current tariff system disadvantages American Industry by limiting what type of production could be viable here.

 

[kolditzt]

Please explain further about the economic disaster we will face, I’m genuinely interested . A economic disaster for other countries that depend on selling to us I can see but not so much for us.

Sure. In Southern Illinois where I farm, tariffs have driven a significant part of our soybean market to Brazil. When this happened in 2018, the government had to give us $23B to make up for tariffs. The outcome is going to be worse this time because of the loss of about 60% of the market. Last year, the government gave $21 billion to farmers and a separate $10 billion to farmers who incurred economic losses, totaling $31 billion overall. Research by the University of Illinois and Ohio State University, the price of inputs — seed, fertilizer, and herbicide — are going to rise significantly. By 2026, the estimate is the the government will have to help farmers with $30B. Farmers have become the new welfare queens. But the economic impact does not stop there. Bankruptcies by farmers are currently up 55%. Overall economics are down in states where grain farming is a primary income. But the worst part is that the shift of China, Canada, Mexico, and other countries to Brazil will be more or less permanent--at least assumed to be long term. And this is the story about only one (1) market. Multiply it across even a tenth of the total of US product markets, the total being 94,000, and you have the possiblity of an economic disaster that could set us back to a level that most find unimaginable. And "just buy American" has not worked in the past, nor is there any indication it's working now, or causing a rise in manufacturing plants in the US. The economy is global, and in our trade war, we are the enemy of most of the countries in the world--certainly all 32 of the major modern countries. As they team up against us, our vulnerability becomes significant. So, that's how, and it's not based on some sort of "beliefs." It's based on current facts.

 

[Cotton Mouth]

Sure. In Southern Illinois where I farm, tariffs have driven a significant part of our soybean market to Brazil. When this happened in 2018, the government had to give us $23B to make up for tariffs. The outcome is going to be worse this time because of the loss of about 60% of the market. Last year, the government gave $21 billion to farmers and a separate $10 billion to farmers who incurred economic losses, totaling $31 billion overall. Research by the University of Illinois and Ohio State University, the price of inputs — seed, fertilizer, and herbicide — are going to rise significantly. By 2026, the estimate is the the government will have to help farmers with $30B. Farmers have become the new welfare queens. But the economic impact does not stop there. Bankruptcies by farmers are currently up 55%. Overall economics are down in states where grain farming is a primary income. But the worst part is that the shift of China, Canada, Mexico, and other countries to Brazil will be more or less permanent--at least assumed to be long term. And this is the story about only one (1) market. Multiply it across even a tenth of the total of US product markets, the total being 94,000, and you have the possiblity of an economic disaster that could set us back to a level that most find unimaginable. And "just buy American" has not worked in the past, nor is there any indication it's working now, or causing a rise in manufacturing plants in the US. The economy is global, and in our trade war, we are the enemy of most of the countries in the world--certainly all 32 of the major modern countries. As they team up against us, our vulnerability becomes significant. So, that's how, and it's not based on some sort of "beliefs." It's based on current facts.

Understood, sad thing is this was coming no matter what Trump does. When the Brazilians have the built in advantages such as cheap land and labor competing with them is always going to be hard. Here in the U. S. we have let outside investors drive land prices through the roof and there’s not much an average farmer can do about it . Now all that said I am for farmers and being able to produce our food here it’s just that the economics of the situation make it hard to compete in a world market when we have so many built in disadvantages . Tariffs will work themselves out and cooler heads will eventually prevail but it might take a while. Stopping foreign investment in America land is one of the best things we can do to help farmers , I’m hopping there will be some interest in that before this administration is done. In closing I don’t think Brazil can feed the world and if they try and squeeze the market there prices will go up. 30 billion seems like a lot but it isn’t when you look at the Pentagons budget of almost a Trillion dollars. Farmers are in a tough spot no doubt and and mostly through no fault of their own. Food security is paramount an if the government has to help out for a little while I’m ok with that.

 

[piano2ner]

Tell your "Local Gun Store" to stock more American made products or you will shop somewhere else!

I simply chose not to make a purchase at an elevated price based on speculation of possible tariffs being enforced. This was back in late April when I was contemplating purchasing a Caesar Guerini in 28 gauge.
I found a private sale 28 gauge Wingmaster in mint condition and it suits my need for now. In the future when I feel like I want an over under in 28 gauge I will revisit purchasing a CG. Guerini makes very nice firearms and at some point I will add one to my safe.

 

[mpolans]

When foreign car manufacturers were under selling domestic producers years ago a tariff was add to their products. As a result Nissan , Toyota and others moved production to the U. S. This has worked out pretty well and provided a lot of good jobs for our workers.

I don't see Krieghoff, Perazzi, Blaser, etc, moving production to the U.S. to avoid tariffs.

 

[Cotton Mouth]

I don't see Krieghoff, Perazzi, Blaser, etc, moving production to the U.S. to avoid tariffs.

Probably but it might encourage domestic production, who will be? I don’t know , only thing I do know is it’s all about the money.

 

[mpolans]

What is a tramline?

IIRC, it's a style of machining the top of the rib with a slight channel right down the center of the rib.

 

[Skeet_Man]

I don't see Krieghoff, Perazzi, Blaser, etc, moving production to the U.S. to avoid tariffs.

Why not? Depends on what percentage of their overall sales is the US market. I really doubt any of those companies would want to find themselves more or less shut out of the largest single market in the world for their products.

With CSG owning an overwhelming majority stake in Perazzi, as well as Rem/Fed, it would not be entirely surprising to see a Made in USA Perazzi at some point in the near future if it is financially advantageous for them to do so. That's kinda where I figured the whole CSG deal was headed anyways, use a broad network of interconnected industries across multiple countries to import/export/produce products where it's most advantageous.

If they can built a Perazzi clone in Turkey for 1/4 the price of an Italian one, certainly they can build one in the US for the same or less than an Italian one. Then again, if the tariff on Turkish guns is much less than that of Italian ones, Yildiz becomes a lot more attractive.

 

[D.Scott]

I think a substantial portion of Beretta sales are within America and they already have some manufacturing in Tennessee.

It's not a stretch to think Beretta Browning and CG (with its subsidiaries) could establish something or add to what is already here. Also, Isn't Perazzi controlled by CZ who already has a foothold and capacity in the states? The big players would expand to the states if sales slumped and maintaining market-share required it.

I think American consumers could force the action if they stopped buying. Would they? probably not, which is a shame. Or maybe the EU agrees to reciprocal tariffs and the status-quo continues. Personally, I'd like to see the former.

 

[RandyWakeman]

Also, Isn't Perazzi controlled by CZ who already has a foothold and capacity in the states?

No, it is CSG :
The global industrial-technology group CSG, owned by Czech entrepreneur Michal Strnad, has key manufacturing plants in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Spain, Italy, Great Britain, India and the USA, and exports its products all over the world. In the USA, CSG is established via two production facilities of its member company Fiocchi, which produces small caliber ammunition in Little Rock, Arkansas and Ozark, Missouri. CSG also has a history of cooperation with leading U.S. corporations like Raytheon and GD (via its European subsidiary GDELS) and delivered theunique, portable POLR-1 radar unit (capable of detecting living objects behind walls and non-metallic obstacles) to several US customers in the law enforcement segment.

CSG continuously invests in the development of its companies while expanding its core businesses. The group includes, for example, the Czech car manufacturer Tatra Trucks, the world's leading manufacturer of small-caliber ammunition, Fiocchi, and the Czech radar manufacturer Eldis. More than 10,000 employees work in the companies incorporated into the CSG holding and in related companies. In 2022, the holding's consolidated revenues reached over USD 1 billion. The main fields of CSG are engineering, automotive, railway, aerospace, defense, and production of small-caliber ammunition.

 

[D.Scott]

@RandyWakeman

Thank you for this detailed clarification. The size and scope you've detailed makes me wonder if CSG has a bigger plan for Perazzi.

 

[RandyWakeman]

@RandyWakeman

Thank you for this detailed clarification. The size and scope you've detailed makes me wonder if CSG has a bigger plan for Perazzi.

Well, we can all wonder. Michal Strnad is a young man and can do what he wants. The recreational arms business is not where the money is-- for years now, it is all Ukraine with no end in sight. Lord of Defense. Big interview with the new dollar billionaire Michal Strnad .

The Company’s pro-forma revenues
increased significantly to €5,176.7
million in FY24, representing a 66.6%
growth from €3,106.5 million achieved
in FY23. Operating EBITDA also
demonstrated strong growth, rising by
70.4% from €815.7 million to €1,389.6
million, with a pro-forma EBITDA mar-
gin of 26.8%, compared to 26.3% in
FY23.
Profit before income tax increased by
€566.9 million, or 203.2%, to €845.8
million in FY24. Net profit attributable
to equity holders of the Company after
the recognition of income tax nearly
tripled, growing by €352.0 million, or
202.2%, to reach €526.1 million in
FY24.

 

[D.Scott]

The recreational arms business is not where the money is

I agree which makes Perazzi a curious fit for this conglomerate.

Thanks for the link.

 

[Skeet_Man]

I'd bet the Perazzi distro network and import/export licenses/practices already in place had a large part to do with it.

Now they can run pretty much anything through Perazzi without having to setup extra companies (wanna start importing Euro guns into the US, simple, slap the Perazzi name on it and no fuss no muss and send it through with the next batch of MX8s).

And I would bet they were about the cheapest company in the world with that large a reach that they could have bought. What is basically a micro company volume wise in the gun industry, but with worldwide distro and name recognition.

 

[RandyWakeman]

I agree which makes Perazzi a curious fit for this conglomerate.

Thanks for the link.

Not really-- a small, prestigious little company with about $18 million in annual sales. CSG is on track to exceed $1 Billion in profit this year, making Perazzi a trivial investment. CSG already owns over 100 companies, many unrelated to consumer firearms or ammo, like radar systems.

 

[justaguywholikestoshoot]

If you understand economics, turning inward and isolating our country from a global economy would be an economic disaster for America, especially for gun markets. I own 34 guns, all of which I love. Two blackpowder rifles, one Ithaca shotgun, a Model 29 S&W, and two AR-15s are American made. The other 28 are not. I have Brownings, all from Japan and Portugal, a Nikko upland over/under from Japan, a Stoeger goose gun from Turkey, two Tikkas from Finland, Caesar Guerini from Italy, two Weatherbys, one from Italy, one from Germany. I have a .375 H&H built in the US, but the action is a Heym Mauser action from Germany. Our gun market is global, and in almost every case, the best in America is definitely not the best in the world. Trying to isolate us will most definitely not help the American economy, and the quality of guns will drop significantly. Global competition is required to maximize excellence in almost all products--especially guns.

Nonsense. America was the strongest when we weren't accepting the lies of globalism